Peer-reviewed Research Papers

Sergey Naumov, David R. Keith, and John D. Sterman (2022).  Accelerating Vehicle Fleet Turnover to Achieve Sustainable Mobility Goals.  Forthcoming, Journal of Operations Management

Sergey Naumov, David R. Keith, and Charles H. Fine (2020).  Unintended Consequences of Automated Vehicles and Pooling for Urban Transportation SystemsProduction and Operations Management, 29(5), 1354-1371.

DOI: 10.1111/poms.13166

David R. Keith, Jeroen J.R. Struben, and Sergey Naumov (2020).  The Diffusion of Alternative Fuel Vehicles: A Generalized Model and Future Research AgendaJournal of Simulation.

DOI: 10.1080/17477778.2019.1708219

David R. Keith, Samantha Houston, and Sergey Naumov (2019).  Vehicle Fleet Turnover and the Future of Fuel EconomyEnvironmental Research Letters, 14(2).

DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aaf4d2


Sergey Naumov and Rogelio Oliva (2018).  Refinements to Eigenvalue Elasticity Analysis: Interpretation of parameter elasticitiesSystem Dynamics Review, 34(3), 426–437.

DOI: 10.1002/sdr.1605

David R. Keith, Sergey Naumov, and John Sterman (2017).  Driving the Future: A Management Flight Simulator of the US Automobile MarketSimulation & Gaming, 48(6), 735–769.
DOI: 10.1177/1046878117737807

Sergey Naumov and Ilya Kabanov (2016).  Dynamic framework for assessing cyber security risks in a changing environment.  In International Conference on Information Science and Communications Technologies (ICISCT). IEEE.
DOI: 10.1109/ICISCT.2016.7777406


William Chernicoff, Sergey Naumov, Shahryar Sarkani, and Thomas Holzer (2014).  Modeling Market Dynamics in a Super Octane Ethanol Fuel Blend-Vehicle Powertrain System: Understanding the role of consumer perception in ethanol market growthJournal on Policy and Complex Systems, 1(2).
DOI: 10.18278/jpcs.1.2.6

Submitted for Publication Papers

Sustainable Urban Ride-Hailing: Setting Prices to Increase Revenue and Reduce GHG Emissions. Sergey Naumov, David R. Keith.

Customer Behavioral Feedback in Queueing Systems. Sergey Naumov, Rogelio Oliva

The Effect of Increasing Vehicle Utilization on the US Automotive Industry. David R. Keith, Sergey Naumov, et al. 

AVs, Shared Mobility, and the Cost of Driving: Will Lower Costs Reduce the Incentive to Pool?  Sergey Naumov, David R. Keith

Working Papers

Circular Economy and Optimal Reordering Under Stochastic Rates of Return.  Sergey Naumov, Saurabh Bansal, V. Daniel R. Guide.


Estimating and Increasing Demand for Corporate Ride-sharing Initiative in Brazil.  Sergey Naumov, Aydin Apltekinoglu.


Generic Drug Policy Resistance.  In Joon Noh, Sergey Naumov, Hui Zhao.

Mutual Validation of Discrete-Event Simulation and System Dynamics Models. Sergey Naumov, Christine S. M. Currie, Russell R. Barton.

Diffusion of Electric Vehicles and the Future of Government Tax Revenues.  Sergey Naumov, David R. Keith.


Analysis of Dynamic Models by Optimization.  Erling Moxnes, Sergey Naumov.